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On March 23,1989 Stanley Pons and Martin Fleischmann announced in a press conference at the University of Utah that they had succeeded in creating a smallscale nuclear fusion reaction in a simple apparatus at room temperature. They called the process "cold fusion". Although many details were missing from their description of the experiment, their claim inspired thoughts of a cheap and limitless energy supply, the raw material for which would be ocean water. The entire structure of the world economy potentially would change.

For a variety of reasons, Pons and Fleischmann were reluctant to reveal all of the details of their experiment. If their process really were producing energy from a fusion reaction, and any commercial potential existed, then they could become quite wealthy. The stats of Utah also considered the economic possibilities and even went so far as to approve $5 million to support cold-fusion research. Congressman Wayne Owens from Utah introduced a bill in the U.S. House of Representatives requesting $100 million to develop a national cold-fusion research center at the University of Utah campus.

But were the results correct? Experimentalists around the world attempted to replicate Pons and Fleischmann's results. Some reported success, while many others did not. A team at Texas A&M claimed to have detected neutrons, the telltale sign of fusion. Other teams detected excess heat as had Pons and Fleischmann. Many experiments failed to confirm a fusion reaction, however, and several physicists claimed that the Utah pair simply had made mistakes in their measurements.

Questions:

1. Consider the problem that a member of the U.S. Congress would have in deciding whether to vote for Congressman Owens's bill. What alternatives are available? What are the key uncertainties? What objectives might the Congress member consider? Structure the decision problem using an influence diagram and a decision tree.

2. A key part of the experimental apparatus was a core of palladium, a rare metal. Consider a speculator who is thinking of investing in palladium in response to the announcement. Structure the investor's decision. How does it compare to the decision in

Question 1?

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  • 匿名使用者
    2 0 年前
    最佳解答

    在三月 23,1989 日史坦利 Pons 和馬丁 Fleischmann 上在他們已經成功地在室溫創造一套簡單的裝置的 smallscale 核子融合反應的猶他州大學的一個記者會中宣佈。他們認為程序是 " 寒冷的融合物 " 。

    雖然許多細節正在從他們的實驗描述失去,但是他們的要求激發了一個便宜的和無限的能源補給的想法,對於那一個將會是大海水的原料。 世界經濟的整個結構可能地將會改變。 因為多種理由, Pons 和 Fleischmann 不願揭露所有他們的實驗細節。如果他們的程序真的正在產生來自融合物反應的能源,而且任何的商業潛能存在,那麼他們可以變成相當富有 也被考慮經濟的可能性並且甚至甚至的猶他州的靜贊同五百萬元支持寒冷-融合物研究。 來自猶他州的國會議員韋恩歐恩提出一個法案進入 請求一億元發展國家的寒冷-融合物研究的美國籍的眾議院議員在猶他州大學校園集中。

    但是結果是正確的嗎? 全球的實驗者嘗試複製 Pons 和 Fleischmann 的結果。 一些報告了成功,當許多其它的時候沒有。 德克薩斯一&M 的一個小組宣稱已經發現中子,融合物的暴露端倪符號。 其他的小組 發現了過度依照有的熱 Pons 和 Fleischmann 。 許多實驗沒有確定融合物反應,然而,和一些物理學者要求了猶他州雙已經只是在他們的測量中犯錯。

    問題:

    1. 考慮美國國會的一個成員將會在決定方面有的問題是否投給國會議員 Owens 的法案。 什麼替代選擇是可得的? 關鍵的不確定是什麼? 國會成員可能考慮什麼目的? 構成使用一個影響力圖表和一棵決定樹的決定問題。

    2. 實驗的裝置一個關鍵部份是一個鈀的核心,稀罕的金屬。 考慮正在想到回應公告投資在鈀的一個投機者。 構成投資者的決定。 它如何與決定相較在

    問題 1?

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  • 2 0 年前

    編號3 翻的比較順耶~~

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  • 匿名使用者
    2 0 年前

    On March 23,1989 Stanley Pons and Martin Fleischmann announced in a press

    conference at the University of Utah that they had succeeded in creating a smallscale

    nuclear fusion reaction in a simple apparatus at room temperature. They called the process "cold fusion". Although many details were missing from their description of the experiment, their claim inspired thoughts of a cheap and limitless energy supply, the raw material for which would be ocean water. The entire structure of the world economy potentially would change.

    1989 年3月 23日 Stanley Pons 和 Martin Fleischmann 在猶他大學的記者會裡發表

    他們已經成功的在室溫下以簡單的設備完成了小規模的核子融合 其過程稱為冷融合 雖然實驗的細節沒有完整敘述 但是他們的聲明已經開啟低成本及用之不盡的能源理念 原料是海水 整個世界的經濟架構可能因此改觀

    For a variety of reasons, Pons and Fleischmann were reluctant to reveal all of the details of their experiment. If their process really were producing energy from a fusion reaction, and any commercial potential existed, then they could become quite wealthy. The stats of Utah also considered the economic possibilities and even went so far as to approve $5 million to support cold-fusion research.

    由於種種理由 他們兩位沒有說出實驗細節 但如果他們真的能從融合反應中製造能源且符合商業利益下 他們將因此致富

    猶他州的統計處? 考量其中經濟效益同時也已贊助了五百萬美元支持這項實驗

    Congressman Wayne Owens from Utah introduced a bill in the U.S. House of Representatives requesting $100 million to develop a national cold-fusion research center at the University of Utah campus.

    猶他州眾議員Wayne Owens也在眾議院提出以一億美元經費在猶他大學發展國家級冷融合實驗中心的法案

    But were the results correct? Experimentalists around the world attempted to replicate Pons and Fleischmann's results. Some reported success, while many others did not. A team at Texas A&M claimed to have detected neutrons, the telltale sign of fusion. Other teams detected excess heat as had Pons and Fleischmann. Many experiments failed to confirm a fusion reaction, however, and several physicists claimed that the Utah pair simply had made mistakes in their measurements.

    但是 實驗的結果正確嗎? 世界各地的科學家皆設法複製Pons and Fleischmann

    的實驗結果 有的成功 大多數則不然 在德州A&M 的工作小組聲稱他們在實驗

    中發現中子 證明是有融合的現象 其他小組則偵測出溢熱 如同最初的實驗結果 大多數實驗沒法證實有融合反應 然而 有些物理學家認為最初的實驗在數據上有誤

    Questions:

    1. Consider the problem that a member of the U.S. Congress would have in deciding whether to vote for Congressman Owens's bill. What alternatives are available? What are the key uncertainties? What objectives might the Congress member consider? Structure the decision problem using an influence diagram and a decision tree.

    問題一 美國國會議員在決定支持這項法案與否會遇到哪些問題 有哪些替代方案 主要的不確定點又在哪 有哪些客觀因素是議員要考量的 最後用作用圖表及決策樹架構出決定過程

    2. A key part of the experimental apparatus was a core of palladium, a rare metal. Consider a speculator who is thinking of investing in palladium in response to the announcement. Structure the investor's decision. How does it compare to the decision in

    Question 1?

    二 實驗的主要物料是鈀的原子核 一種稀有金屬 考量 投資者在決策因應這項實驗結果而對鈀的投資 架構出投資者的決定過程 並跟問題一的決定做個比較

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