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? 發問時間: 社會與文化語言 · 1 0 年前

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By suggesting the possibility of further strengthening of the renminbi, China is hoping to limit additional political pressure but it risks stoking further speculative inflows in anticipation of a rise in the value of the renminbi.

Hedge fund threat

China won't make its currency fully convertible for at least five years

because it worries hedge funds may force the yuan/renminbi to fall, similar to what happened to the Korean won and Thai baht during the 1997 Asian financial crisis, said Li Deshui, a member of the central bank's monetary committee.

``There's more than $800 billion to $1 trillion of hedge funds in the world and the Chinese financial system is relatively weak,'' Li, 61, said in an interview. ``If the (yuan/renminbi) becomes fully convertible it would be attacked by these hedge funds.''

In 1997, Thailand's decision to let the baht fall, set off an Asian financial crisis and a wave of devaluations of other currencies in the region and in Latin America. China was the only major developing economy to maintain the value of its currency during the crisis, earning praise from countries including the US and Japan that had feared any such move could trigger another round of competitive devaluations.

Li said that the state of China's banks is a key reason why the government won't allow the yuan to become a fully tradable currency anytime soon.

``Over the next five years, I do not foresee the renminbi becoming fully convertible,'' Li said at the weekend. ``Our banks are not good enough and the monetary system is not quite up to international standards.''

China's banks are trying to shed some Rmb1.59 trillion yuan/renminbi ($196 billion) in bad loans, a result of policy-directed lending to state-owned companies. They have also been ordered by regulators to raise their capital adequacy ratios to a minimum 8.0 percent by the end of 2006, when restrictions on foreign banks operating in China are lifted.

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  • 1 0 年前
    最佳解答

    藉由建議人民幣的進一步的加強可能性,中國希望限制附加的政治壓力,但是它預料會有一個在人民幣的價值方面的提高而冒著添加燃料更進一步思索性的流入危險。

    避險基金

    中國將不使它的貨幣至少五年完全可改變

    因為它煩惱避險基金可能強迫日圓/人民幣落下,相似的到在 1997 亞洲人期間韓國韓幣和泰國銖發生了什麼事財政的危機,李 Deshui ,一個中央銀行的貨幣委員會的成員說。

    那裡超過 , 全球的避險基金中的$1 兆個的八千億元和中國的財政系統是相對地弱,''61 歲的李在一次面談中說。 如果那 (日圓/人民幣)變成完全可改變它將會被這些避險基金攻擊。’'

    在 1997 年, 泰國的決定讓銖秋天,出發在區域的一個亞洲的財政危機和其他貨幣的一個貶值的波浪和拉丁美洲。中國是在危機期間維持它的貨幣價值的唯一主要的發展中的經濟,所賺的錢從國家稱讚以包括美國和日本以已經害怕任何的如此移動可以引起競爭貶值的另一個回合。

    李說了中國州的銀行是一個關鍵的理由 , 政府為什麼將不讓日圓隨時很快變成完全可傳統主義的貨幣。

    在未來的五年,我不預見變成完全可改變的人民幣,'' 在週末被說的李。 我們的銀行不是夠好的,而且中國的銀行正在嘗試流出一些 Rmb1 。壞帳的 59 兆個日圓/人民幣 (一千九百六十億元) , 一個政策的結果-將借貸集中於州立的公司。 他們也已經被調整者命令在 2006 底之前升起對最小 8.0% 的他們首都的適當比, 當在中國操作的外國銀行上的限制被升高的時候。

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    6 年前

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