# 建構數學預測模型～～我想要的研究的方向是股票分析

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It depends on your academic level! (你是大陸的吧? 我也是! 所以我特別挺你喔. 這個是我自己寫的, 不是在網上抄的. 希望能幫到你. 我現在在學精算, 這種

financial report是我第二年要寫的, 很有難度. 所以你自己保重了)

I think your r writing a financial report. So security, marketability and return

should be involved in your introduction. Equities are usually valued by assuming that dividends increase at a constant rate and continues in perpetuity. If A is the value of an equity annual dividends just after a dividend payment, then;

A=D(1+g)/(i-g) where D is the amount of the dividend just paid.

This calculation I mentioned has been based on the assumption that future

interest rates will take define values that are known in advance. This is the

deterministic approach. In practices, an interest rates that errs on the cautions side may be chosen to allow for uncertainty.

The deterministic approach is more general method that allow us to determined

both the expected value, as a best estimate of the quantity of interest, and the

variance, which gives an indication of the likely spread of values.

Stochastic interest rate models: simple models and the log-normal distribution.

Simple models: fixed interest rate model and varying interest rate model.

Fixed: V(i)=E(i^2)-E(i)^2

Varying: E(i)=j, V(i)=S^2

and Var(Sn)=E(Sn^2)-E(Sn)^2=(1+2j+j^2+S^2)^n-(1+j)^2n

log-normal distribution:if X1~LogN(μ1, σ1^2) and X2~LogN(μ2, σ2^2)

then X1*X2~LogN(μ1+μ2, σ1^2+σ2^2)

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